Seeing is Believing: Japan's Nuclear Renaissance

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Japan and nuclear energy have had quite a difficult and complex relationship over the last century, to say the least. Between the tragedies of Hiroshima and Nagaksaki, and with the Fukushima disaster even more recently, there is enough trauma for the nation to ever want to engage with any fissile activity again. And I don’t think anyone would blame them.

This has made the recent renaissance of nuclear energy in Japan a significant surprise to the general public. 2023 is currently on track to be a record breaking year for nuclear energy production. To date, Japan has restarted 11 reactors since the Fukushima disaster in 2011, with two more in Kansai Electric’s Takahama Reactors No.1&2 coming online this year. The government accelerated deployment by fast-tracking several of the reactors online, bringing much needed capacity in a timely manner. To better level-set the magnitude of this change, the United States has brought exactly two nuclear reactors online in 20 years (One being this summer) and is decommissioning over 20. Not great.

What makes this turnaround even more remarkable is how decimated the industry was shortly after Fukushima. Capacity was completely severed.

This chart from the IEA displays how quickly the industry froze. It was essentially killed in 12 months. For the country to now have a 2030 goal of nuclear accounting for at least 20% of the overall electricity mix, it is clear that we have now bore witness to a country truly committing itself to energy abundance, national security, and decarbonization. While 18 years may seem like quite some time to go from 0% to 20%, in the game of nuclear energy policy, it's actually quite speedy (making an exception for the Chinese here) 

As the world further comes to grips on the impacts of a warming atmosphere, sound energy policy lies central to the mission of combating climate change. Hydrocarbons have long positioned themselves as the backbone of our world, and whether or not people like to admit it, our planet is far from the same without it. Although hydrocarbons have been integral to global energy infrastructure, we currently have access to a scalable source of carbon-free energy that can usurp these incumbents.

We’ve so far proven it works, it can scale, and can deliver in many ways other renewables cannot. The most important of which would be power density, where nuclear ranks extremely favorably. It is really mind-boggling to wrap the human mind around how much can be created from so little.

While other countries have tried and failed to replace energy dense fossil fuels with solar and wind, Japan has become a great example of how great outcomes are created when an understanding of basic physics meets rational policy. Bloomberg reported in June of 2023 that Japan had the lowest LNG import totals in two decades. A positive outcome for Japan, which has now become a textbook example of how to ensure carbon emissions and energy security are negatively correlated. This is a far cry from countries such as Germany, who have closed all nuclear plants and are now increasing reliance on coal due to the lack of available generation caused by the Energiewende agenda.

Japan is able to credit much of this recent success to their citizens ability to quickly shift its stance on nuclear power. As we have seen, (again, except for China and Xi’s iron fist), public support is critical in enabling nuclear capacity creation. Management of public fear and anxieties over the long tail risk of nuclear power is incredibly key. This is arguably where the U.S. is facing the most trouble in a nuclear renaissance of their own. For growth to happen, sentiment needs to be positive, and it seems like the Japanese have finally been able to answer for this.

In a February announcement by Asahi Shimbun, one of the oldest and largest newspapers in the region, the results of a nationwide poll had found that for the first time since the Fukushima disaster, a majority of Japan is in favor of nuclear energy.

Maybe we can lend some credit to the country’s extraordinary collectivist mindset for this shift, but the history that Japan has endured makes this all the more surprising. One other notable takeaway from this poll is the delta between the perspectives tightened rapidly in 2022, when the world’s energy market was given a shock with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For energy exporters like the U.S, the impacts were relatively tame. The same could not be said for those on the other end of the spectrum. Japan, with very limited access to domestic primary energy supply, had to come to terms quickly with a rapidly evolving energy situation.

The country had been a large player in the LNG market for years, and had built significant infrastructure to handle import capacity (really cool X thread on the history of Japanese LNG). When large swaths of Europe were cut off from Russian gas pipelines, there were plenty of market entrants willing to pay top-dollar for LNG, and the market volatility really made under-capitalized buyers vulnerable. The U.S. is lucky to have relatively abundant domestic supply, giving the nation extraordinary liberties and comforts. The same cannot be said for Japan as the nation has terrible access to domestic supply. True energy scarcity can change your mind and force your hand in ways that are difficult for U.S. citizens to comprehend.

Despite the U.S. current energy security, it does not take a genius to understand that in the scope of sustainability, the nation is not close to where it needs to be. Nuclear energy is a proven source of low carbon power, and it is essential for policy to reflect its importance.

Ultimately, what makes this Japanese resurgence of nuclear most relevant for readers in the U.S., is that it shows that a nuclear renaissance is possible. Seeing is truly believing, and sometimes you need to witness something to know what’s possible. Differing from the UAE, which is rapidly ascending as the poster child on how to build a nuclear energy program from scratch, Japan’s commitments have been a reversal of public support and policy directives. An example of how to rebuild from literal ashes. Not to discredit the accomplishments of the UAE of course, but Japan’s policy shift is a fun comeback story we can all get behind. And something we can soon hope to follow here in the US.

Disclaimer: The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this writing belong solely to the myself and does not reflect the views of my employer.